Deez Blogz: Week 16 Diary – The Texans

Dear Diary,

TEXAS SIZE HEARTBREAK!

The Buccaneers were gracious hosts to the Houston Texans, giving them a win and allowing them to clinch the AFC South Championship with a 23-20 victory on Saturday. The Bucs win streak ended at four games, and the few fans that did show up to Raymond James Stadium left disappointed once again. Another game flushed down the toilet because of turnovers. Another strong defensive effort went to waste because the offense didn’t do their part. Another winning season down in flames. And another week of debates and arguments over Jameis Winston’s future here in Tampa. Even though this was a gut-wrenching game full of “BAD” and “UGLY” things from start to finish, there were some “GOOD” things about it too. So here’s what I have come up with for this Week 16 loss to the Texans.

THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY

THE GOOD

The Defense – This might have been the best game the Bucs defense has played all season. They faced a dual-threat quarterback leading the 11th ranked offense in Deshaun Watson, the 7th ranked rushing attack of the two-headed monster backfield of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson and one of the best receivers in football in DeAndre Hopkins on Saturday and SHUT THEM ALL DOWN. They allowed just 229 of total offense on 63 plays, forced 2 turnovers (really it was 3 with the forced fumble by Lavonte David that was “blown dead”) and had 5 sacks (Pierre-Paul 3, Nassib 1, Murphy-Bunting 1) while holding the Texans rushing attack to just 68 yards total. Hyde averaged just 1.6 yards per carry. Johnson averaged just 2.0 yards per carry. And Watson was their leading rusher with 37 yards. The Bucs also shut down the Texans passing game, limiting Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins to 5 catches for 23 yards. Their leading receiver was Kenny Stills with 5 catches for 57 yards. Watson finished 19 of 32 for 184 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, and a QB rating of 62.5; his lowest of the season and third-lowest of his career. They held Houston to just 4 of 14 on third downs and gave up just one touchdown on four trips inside the red zone. All around, it was one of the best games that I’ve seen out of a Bucs defense in quite a while. Too bad it was a wasted effort, thanks to a few boneheaded plays by the offense and special teams.

Going into this game, this Buccaneers defense was on the rise. Already ranked 1st in run defense, they have been the 8th ranked total defense in the NFL since Week 10. They were tied for 1st in defensive touchdowns, tied for 2nd in forced fumbles and 6th in takeaways. It would be really nice if the Bucs front office can figure out a way to keep this unit together and keep Todd Bowles here as the defensive coordinator after how far they have come this season. It’s all going to depend on how greedy some of these guys want to be with their new contracts.

JPP – The 30-year-old medical marvel, Jason Pierre-Paul, matched a career-high with 3 sacks on Saturday. He now has 6.5 sacks in his 9 games this season. If he can get another 1.5 sacks, next week, versus Atlanta, then he’ll earn a performance bonus of $500K on his contract for this year. He has expressed interest in returning to Tampa next season, as have most of the guys on the defensive line, so hopefully, he will be back next season. It would be really nice if the Buccaneers’ front office can figure out a way to keep this whole group together.

Davis Island – This was Carlton Davis’ best game of his young career. He was tasked with covering one of the best receivers in the game in DeAndre Hopkins on Saturday and held him to just 5 catches for 23 yards. That was his worst game in three years. He also added 5 tackles in this game too. He’s now tied for 4th in the league (with Jamel Dean and Joe Haden) with 19 passes defensed this season, trailing some of the best corners in football like Stephon Gilmore (25), Tra’Davious White (23), and Logan Ryan (21). This young Bucs secondary had its struggles early on this season, but they are really coming into their own. It’s really going to be fun to watch this group grow up together for the next few years.

The “Starter”- I’ve been campaigning for it all year, and it still hasn’t happened yet. RONALD JONES NEEDS THE ROCK! Don’t get me wrong, I think Peyton Barber is a solid running back, but if Ronald Jones is going to be the future of this franchise in the backfield, he needs to be the primary back, not just “the starter”. He finished this game with 14 carries for 77 yards, 3 catches for 32 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per catch. That’s 8.1 yards every time he touched it. So why is he not touching it more? I’m in no position to question Bruce Arians’ coaching tactics, but this alternating running backs every series and taking Jones out on third downs just doesn’t make sense to me. I can appreciate the fact that he needs to get better at pass protection and picking up blitzes, but how’s he going to do that if he never gets the opportunities in live games? Put him in and keep him in. Let’s see what the kid can do with 25 to 30 touches in a game.

The Next Men Up – There were lots of guys who stepped up in this game who were either seeing their first regular-season action or getting more snaps than usual. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tanner Hudson, and Jordan Whitehead out, there were plenty of big cleats to fill on Saturday. Recently signed tight end Codey McElroy and wide receiver Ishmael Hyman came in and made some big plays while safeties Andrew Adams and Darian Stewart filled in nicely for Whitehead at strong safety. With defensive tackle Beau Allen out, William Gholston and Rakeem Nunez-Roches also got into the d-line rotation more often and played well. Breshad Perriman stepped up big once again as the Bucs new “#1 receiver” finishing with 7 catches for 102 yards. In the first 46 games of his career, he broke 80 yards just one time. He has now done that three times in the last four games.

The “Moral Victory”- I’m not big on them. I’m not even really sure if I believe in them. A loss is a loss as far as I’m concerned, however, for those of you who do believe in them, this is for you: The Bucs only lost by 3 points to a 10-5 team, who just won their division AND the Bucs turned the ball over five times in the process. This should have been a blowout. Instead, the Bucs still had a chance to win this game in the end, DESPITE the interceptions and all-around poor showing by the offense. Oh, and they were playing without their two biggest offensive weapons in Evans and Godwin. All things considered, this was as big of a “moral victory” as you could get in this situation. If you believe in that sort of thing.

THE BAD

The “Famous” One – Jameis Winston can be a joy to watch when he’s playing well, but he can also be a nightmare to watch when he’s playing bad. Saturday was a nightmare. Against the 29th ranked pass defense in the league, he threw 4 interceptions, including a pick-six on his first pass attempt of the game, for the third time this season. In fact, he had 3 interceptions in his first 11 throws of this game. His 3 games with 4 or more picks are the most of any quarterback in the league. Actually, no other player has more than one of those 4+ interception games this season. No QB has had more than one of those types of games in a season since Winston came into the league in 2015. In fact, the last time a quarterback had three such games in a season was back in 1998 by the Chargers quarterback, Craig Whelihan. His 28 interceptions are the most by ANY QB since Brett Favre’s threw 29 in 2005. Peyton Manning has the only other 28-interception season in the last 30 years.

Despite all the picks, Winston still had his team in a position to at least tie the game, if not win it, at the end had it not been for a dropped pass by Cam Brate on fourth down. He finished this game 25 of 48 for 335 yards and one touchdown to go along with his four interceptions. It was a bad day for Winston, who is still playing for the opportunity to be back in Tampa next year. On a positive note, he’s still 1st in passing yards (4,908) ahead of Dak Prescott (4,334) and Jared Goff (4,319) and 2nd in passing touchdowns (31) behind Lamar Jackson (33) and ahead of Russell Wilson (28). Unfortunately, he’s increased his league-leading interception total to 28, which is ten picks higher than 2nd ranked Philip Rivers (18). For whatever reason, Winston seems to struggle with interceptions more at home than on the road. This season, he has thrown 22 picks in 7 home games (including London) and just 6 picks in 8 away games. With one home game remaining, his 22 picks match the most of ANY QB in the last 57 years. Vinnie Testaverde threw 22 at home in 1988 for the Buccaneers. George Blanda threw 23 in 1962, but other than those nobodies, no one else has ever had more than 19 picks at home. In his postgame presser, Winston was asked about it, and he answered that he just really wants to win at home, so he takes more chances with the football. Well, I say stop doing that and just throw the damn football!

The “Reliable One” – It rarely happens, so when it does, it has to make my “BAD” list. Cam Brate had two drops on Saturday, and one was HUGE. He dropped what would have been a first down catch on 4th and 3 at the Houston 40-yard line. He didn’t look the well-thrown ball into his hands and cost the offense the first down. Instead of getting his team a new set of downs and at least giving Matt Gay a field goal opportunity to tie it up with 3:38 left in the game, the Bucs turned it over on downs. The offense did get the ball back with just over two minutes left, but Jameis Winston threw his fourth and final interception of the day to seal the Texans victory. The turnovers may have dug the Bucs into a hole in this game, but this drop by Brate may have cost them the win.

The “Special” Teams – The Bucs special teams unit wasn’t so “special” in this game. They allowed a blocked field goal in the first quarter. There was poor blocking on both punt and kickoff returns, and the decisions made by the punt and kick returners Dare Ogunbowale and Spencer Schnell were questionable at best. Perhaps their biggest mistake of the night was by Schnell when he called for a fair catch at the Bucs 4-yard line with 28 seconds left in the game. The “Golden Rule”, on punt returns, is to stand at the 10-yard line, and if the ball is going over your head, you let it go and hope it goes into the endzone for a touchback. Instead of doing that and giving his team the ball on the 25-yard line, down by 3 points with 28 seconds left, he fielded it on the 4-yard line and pinned the Bucs deep, giving them virtually no chance for a tie.

The Turnovers – The Bucs committed five turnovers in this game, four interceptions by Winston and a fumble by Barber. That directly led to 17 of the Texans 23 points. They now have 38 turnovers this season, 28 interceptions, and 10 fumbles. When compared to their 27 takeaways (12 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries), they have a -11 turnover differential. The only teams worse are the Dolphins, Giants, Bengals, and the Chargers. Almost all of the teams in the top ten of this category are playoff teams. In fact, over the last 15 years, the team that wins the turnover battle wins nearly 80% of the time. Just look at the Bucs record since drafting Jameis Winston in 2015. When he has zero turnovers, they are 9-7. One turnover, they are 10-12. Two turnovers, they are 3-5. Four or more turnovers, they are 0-8. If the Bucs do decide to keep Winston next year and/or beyond, then he will have to learn to stop taking so many chances with the football at some point. If not, then I don’t see how they can keep him around and expect to be playoff contenders.

The Run Game – Whether it’s the running backs, the offensive line, or a combination of the two, the Bucs running game has had its fair share of struggles this season. Bruce Arians likes to say that they’re a “run-first football team”, yet on Saturday, they only ran the ball nine times for 22 yards in the second half despite never trailing by more than 3 points. They finished this game with 21 attempts for 106 yards rushing for a 5 yards per carry average, but most of that was due to that 49-yard run by Ronald Jones. Other than that, Peyton Barber had 5 carries for 13 yards, and Winston added 2 carries for 16 yards. Not counting the two scrambles by Jameis, the Bucs only ran 19 run plays versus 48 pass attempts. That’s not the kind of balance that Arians is looking for in his offense.

The Offensive O-line – Besides the inadequate run blocking, the big uglies up front also gave up 3 sacks to the Texans defense. I don’t know what to think about this group. One game, they’re good. The next game, they suck. This needs to be one of the areas addressed this coming offseason. If they are going to keep Jameis and not draft a QB early on, then their first-round pick really needs to be an offensive tackle. Whether it’s to replace Demar Dotson on the right side or Donovan Smith on the left, something has to be done with the edges of this line.

THE UGLY

The Officiating – Once again, the officiating crew had an influence on the outcome of a Buccaneers game. There were missed calls and bad calls throughout this entire game. The first was an obvious pass interference on the Texans that wasn’t called on a deep pass to Breshad Perriman that could’ve given the Bucs the ball in field goal range on their second possession. Instead, Winston threw a pick on his very next pass, and Houston ended up with the field goal. The second was an obvious helmet-to-helmet hit on Perriman late in the 4th quarter. He made the catch for a 19-yard gain to the Bucs 30-yard line for a first down, but had the penalty been called it would have added 15-yards putting them at midfield, down by just 3 points with 2-minutes left in the game. Instead, Winston threw his fourth and final pick of the day two passes later, which sealed the win for Houston. The third was an obvious forced fumble and recovery by Lavonte David in the first quarter. It happened a few plays after Winston’s second pick and would’ve given the Bucs the ball right back after the turnover. The excuse given by the official was that the whistle had blown the play dead before the ball popped out. Three terrible calls that contributed to this Buccaneers loss that are just inexcusable.

The Big Decision – Before this game, I think the Buccaneers probably felt pretty good about keeping Jameis Winston around for a while. After this game, the questions probably start all over again. Apparently, Ian Rapaport came out with a report Saturday morning that the Bucs had already decided to keep Winston for the 2020 season. However, in an interesting twist, during his postgame presser, Bruce Arians made the statement that decisions like that aren’t made until AFTER the season is over. Was that the truth? Or did that game make them rethink their decision? I don’t envy Jason Licht or Bruce Arians at all. This is going to be a tough decision and one of the most important decisions in franchise history. Should they keep him or not? Should they “franchise” him or not? Should they roll the dice and draft a rookie to be their next franchise QB or not? His leadership, competitiveness, heart, football IQ, and arm talent are without question. But does all of that outweigh the interceptions? Will he ever stop throwing interceptions, or is it just something that a team will have to live with and accept for his entire career? These are all questions that will have to be answered this offseason.

The Attendance – Raymond James Stadium was empty for this game folks. The announced attendance was 49,036 down from the 50,232 at the last home game versus the Colts. That’s sad. A home team, on a four-game win streak, playing a division-leading opponent and they can’t even get more than 50,000 people to come to a stadium that seats almost 66,000 fans? That’s pathetic. Tampa Bay should be ashamed of themselves. For the fair-weather fans who keep saying, “When they start winning, I’ll spend money to come see them!”, where were you? For the socialite-elitist fans, who have club level seats and choose to chill out in the air-conditioned lounge and talk business instead of paying attention to the game, get your asses into your seats where our boys can see and hear you and watch the game that you paid good money to see. And to the die-hard fans who were there, I commend you on how loud you were during this game. Despite the turnovers, the bad plays, and the terrible calls you guys were there to the end, and that’s what our team needs from its home crowd no matter how small it is.

THE CONCLUSION

The Bucs now sit at 7-8 for the season and still have a chance to end on a high note. A win next week against the visiting Atlanta Falcons puts them at 8-8 with a non-losing record for the first time since 2016 and just the second time since 2010 and just the sixth time since winning the Super Bowl in 2003. There may not be any playoff implications for next week’s game, but the winner finishes second in the NFC South, and the loser finishes third, which will affect their 2020 season. A loss gives them a 7-9 record and means they will be traveling to the Giants and hosting the Rams next year. A win gets them to 8-8 and means they will be traveling to either the Eagles or Cowboys (whichever doesn’t win the NFC East) and hosting either the 49ers or Seahawks (whichever doesn’t win the NFC West). The big difference between the two that could have playoff implications later next year.

This team, these players, these coaches, this franchise, this fan base, and this community all need a win next week. Sure it’s just one game. Yes, it’s the last game of a disappointing season. But an 8-8 non-losing season would go a long way towards changing the culture of this franchise. It would carry all of us into the offseason with a positive feeling and hope for the future. And not the kind of false hope that we always head into every season with, but real hope that whatever this new coaching staff has been doing this season is FINALLY working. Hope that Arians can do here in Tampa what he did in Arizona taking a 5-11 team to 10-6, 11-5 and 13-3 over the next three years. Hope that Winston can adjust to Arians offense the same way that Carson Palmer did going from 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in his first year to 81 touchdowns and 35 interceptions over his next 4 seasons (44 games). I hope that the days of losing and bad football are behind us (at least for a few years). It may be the last game, but it’s a big one. I think they can pull it out and I’ll be right there in the south endzone to be a part of it.

Until then, as always, GO BUCS!!!