December 6, 2023

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Jameis Winston 1 of 7 QBs predicted to achieve 4,200 Passing yards

3 min read

Some outlets predicting a big year for J.W.

Absolutely Mr. Winston is one of those Quarterbacks expected to hit the 4,200 passing yards mark by Pro Football Focus. The way I see it, their projection isn’t risky, or bold whatsoever. In Jameis Winston’s first two years in Tampa, he played in all 16 games both years. In both years, he threw for over 4,000 yards. Let me break this thing down for you in a way that you can see why Winston breaking the 4,200-yard mark is almost a sure thing.

In 2015, his rookie year, he threw for 4,044-yards. In 2016, he racked up 4,090-yards. So playing in all 16 games is vital to their projection. The telling stat to pay attention to is the yards per game. In 2015 Jameis came in at 252.8-yards per game, putting him over the four grand mark. In 2016 he logged 255.6, also taking him over the 4,000-yards passing yards for the year. For the next two years, Winston didn’t play in every game. In the 2017 Season, he played in 13 games. His yards per game for that year was 269.5. For last season, playing in 11 games, his yards per game was 272.0. Are you seeing a trend here? Every year Winston has been here, he finished the season passing for more yards per game than he did the year before. Being that he eclipsed the four grand mark his first two seasons playing all 16 games, it speaks to the fact that with higher yards per game totals his last two years, had he played in all 16 games, he would have broken the 4,000-yard mark for sure.

Carson Palmer’s results under Arians

Last season Winston only started 9 games, he finished with almost 3,000-yards at 2,992. Now, let’s figure he starts all 16 games this season, add in a new Coaching staff, with a head coach that has worked wonders with troubled QBs in the past; Ie. Carson Palmer went into Arizona in 2013, the first year he and Arians were together, and he threw for over 4,200. In the nine years before Arians, Palmer had never reached that mark. He had only thrown for 4,000-yards, three times under Arians (5 seasons). If he played in 15-16 games, he tallied over 4,200-yards. One year he close to 5,000- yards with 35 touchdowns. Physically, Winston is a much better QB than Palmer, so there’s no reason to think, with the receivers Tampa has, and Arians presence, that if he starts all 16 games, he won’t easily go for 4,500 or even 5,000-yards.

It’s nice to see Jameis Winston’s name in there with the best QBs in the NFL, and while I love that Pro Football Focus projects him to finish with the best in passing yardage, it’s actually a very easy call to make. The news would actually be, if he started 16 games, and didn’t throw for 4,200-yards. Jameis is poised to have a huge breakout year in 2019, and if he does indeed have that kind of year, the sky is the limit. 4,200-yards would actually be a disappointment to me, if he is healthy, and starts all 16 games. Go get’em JW, and Go Bucs!!

*Stats on passing yardage for Palmer, and Winston thanks to Pro Football