December 6, 2023

Bucs Life

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Revenge of the 5th!

2 min read

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 28: A general view of the draft stage during the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall on April 28, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Well, this is where research can sometimes prove your theory wrong. After analyzing 40 years of drafts, I found the following truths.

Three QBs were taken during this period, so this a good place to start. I had a choice of Jim McMahon, drafted in 1982 by the Bears, Kerry Collins in 1995 from the Panthers, and finally Mark Sanchez; less said the better. Using the same knowledge of college football that would be used by a GM, I selected Kerry Collins. He took the big awards except for the Heisman and took the Nittany Lions to an undefeated season.

This is where the plan completely fell apart on the history. Despite having a choice of 7 RBs, I was left with just 3 WRs and 2 Offensive Tackles. In 40 years only 15 offensive players have been selected with the overwhelming majority being Running Backs, including our own Cadillac Williams in 2005. Not a single interior offensive lineman has been drafted, nor a TE. An interesting trivia point for people, Cadillac Williams has been the last RB drafted at 5, since 2005.

It seems like the defense is the priority with the 5th overall pick. 25 times a player on the defensive side of the ball has gone here. Many notable names like Junior Seau, Deion Sanders, AJ Hawk, and Khalil Mack. This pick has seen 9 Linebackers, and 11 Defensive Backs go off the board.

If we run purely off the law of averages, then expect The Chargers (via trade obviously) take a DB from Oklahoma. Then the most common occupant of the 5th pick will pick the most common position of the most common school.

Should the Buccaneers hold onto the 5th pick, then it is likely that the trend will continue. The Bucs are expected to select either a blue-chip Linebacker in the shape of Devin White or Greedy Williams at CB.

Which would make either just the 2nd player to be drafted 5th overall out of LSU?

Barring a trade, it is likely that the Buccaneers will continue the trend of defensive players at 5. Linebacker and Defensive Backs are a core part of a competitive defensive unit; however it leaves the question of, why are more offensive players not taken at this point?